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Re: orion AMS; oral torah; alterum

On Fri, 25 Jul 1997 10:43:37 +0000, goranson@acpub.duke.edu writes:
>1) The proposal that the scrolls were deposited before 63 BCE has
>reappeared on the list. I'm no AMS expert, but on reading several
>articles in Radiocarbon and 'Atiqot, the proposal appears not possible.
>Of 19 Qumran texts tested, 5 have 2-sigma (95%) ranges which are
>entirely after 63 BCE and an additional 5 (plus a patch from 4Q22) have
>ranges which are partly after 63 BCE. Using a handy chart which Greg
>Doudna distributed at SBL Nov. 1995, if one draws a line at 63 BCE,
>almost half of the date ranges appear after, later than 63 BCE. I'm no
>statistical expert, but that's not insignificant.

     Uh-uh.  No.  Short of seeing the data themselves and the intervals
     between them, it appears the median line would be towards 65 BCE
     rather than after.  Half the scores above, half below is the median. 
     The mode is the most common value reported, the mean being the total
     of the values divided by the number of scores.  It's not that simple
     actually but for building a barn that's close enough.  There may be
     grad students of the mid 60's from the U of Miami in the Gables, FL,
     who remember this young grad assistant coaching them on this for Dr.
     Mouly.  And of course, my other students over the years may remember. 

     BTW, your 2 Sigma scores out of 19 say 4 are entirely before 63 BCE
     and 5 partially before.  Apparently the partials have more scores
     earlier than 63 than scores after 63 to allow the Median scores you
     report.  Again, the Mean would likely be near to 65 BCE than later.

Tom Simms

     [... delete ... data already seen & on which I'll not comment ...]