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Re: Let's crunch some numbers, was RE: Jesus Family Tombs?
On Fri, 5 Apr 1996, James R. Davila wrote:
> >A slight mistake - the previous formula should read:
> > = 1/(10,000*1/1000) = 1/10
> >Explanation : since it statistically predictable, given the
> >assumptions, that there were 10 families with the particular set of names
> >Joseph/Mary/Joshua, the chance that a random family found with those
> >names is That One equals to 1/10.
> What is the evidence for your statistics?
Are you asking me about the evidence for my assumptions? I chose the number
10,000 for the population of Jerusalem because it seemed a likely figure,
but I have little reliable info on the subject. As for 1/10 for the
frequency of names, this also seemed prima-facie likely as the _average_
frequency of the names Joseph, Joshua and Mary. I am aware of the statistics
1/4 for the name Mary, but the other two names are less frequent, especially
Joshua. I am aware of the somewhat dubious sinificance of all this, however,
the likelyhood of the graves found being those of Jesus' family was
pronounced as 'nil' without much basis - 1/10 is far from being nil.
As for the question of Joseph (j's father) being burried in Jerusalem - that
is certainly not likely based on the NT stories, since he seems to have been
dead long before Jesus hit Jerusalem. However, the Josepf of the burrial
could be another relative, whilst the father of "Joshua" would still be
"Joseph" based on the inscription.