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*To*: orion@pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il*Subject*: Re: Let's crunch some numbers, was RE: Jesus Family Tombs?*From*: "James R. Davila" <jrd4@st-andrews.ac.uk>*Date*: Fri, 5 Apr 1996 11:36:06 +0100

>A slight mistake - the previous formula should read: > > = 1/(10,000*1/1000) = 1/10 > > >Explanation : since it statistically predictable, given the >assumptions, that there were 10 families with the particular set of names >Joseph/Mary/Joshua, the chance that a random family found with those >names is That One equals to 1/10. > > >Asia What is the evidence for your statistics? I thought that something more like 1 in 4 women were named Mary. If so, the chances are 1 in 40 of hitting a particular family. But there are other assumptions involved too. For example: Jesus' family was supposed to be from Nazareth, so what are the odds that his parents (esp. Joseph, who is not mentioned as present in Jesus' adulthood) would be buried in Jerusalem? I'm afraid statistics aren't really of much help here. Anyhow, not much connection to the DSS. Holiday blessings to all, Jim Davila University of St. Andrews, Scotland jrd4@st-andrews.ac.uk

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