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Re: Let's crunch some numbers, was RE: Jesus Family Tombs?
On Fri, 5 Apr 1996, Asia Lerner wrote:
> Frequensy of names Joseph, Mary, Joshua = 1/10 (every tenth man is either
> Joseph or Joshua, every tenth woman is Mary)
> Population of Jerusalem, 1 Century = 10,000
> Statisticaly predicted frequency of mother=Mary, father=Joseph, son=Joshua
> = 1/10*10*10 = 1/1000
> The chance that a particular grave found with those names is the grave of the
> Holy Family = 10,000 * 1/1000 = 1/10
A slight mistake - the previous formula should read:
= 1/(10,000*1/1000) = 1/10
Explanation : since it statistically predictable, given the
assumptions, that there were 10 families with the particular set of names
Joseph/Mary/Joshua, the chance that a random family found with those
names is That One equals to 1/10.